Late January/February has brought a triple dose of crucial data for those tracking international student flows into the UK. HESA released headline enrolment figures for the 2024/25 academic year, UCAS published applicant data for its January 2026 Equal Consideration Date, and the Home Office released its monthly visa application statistics for January 2026. Taken together, the three datasets tell a nuanced – and at times contradictory – story: a demand pipeline that accommodation operators should find genuinely encouraging, set against a visa conversion signal that warrants some concern.
HESA Data: 2024/25 Enrolments – the impact of visa policies plays out
The latest HESA data confirms that the total number of international students enrolled at UK universities in 2024/25 stood at 685,565, representing a 6.1% decline on the prior year. New entrants fell by a somewhat smaller margin of 5.4%, to 404,555.
However, context is important here. The drop is lower than many anticipated, given that the number of sponsored study visas issued in 2024 fell by around 14% – a figure widely attributed to the government’s 2023 policy change restricting dependants of students on taught postgraduate courses from accompanying their studies to the UK. The gap between visa declines and enrolment declines suggests some lagged effects, but also that universities and their students proved more resilient than worst-case forecasts implied.
Nigeria and India feel the most pressure. Nepal, a rising star?
Among the major non-EU sending countries, Nigeria and India recorded the sharpest declines in student numbers. This is broadly consistent with the pattern seen in 2024 visa statistics. Both markets were disproportionately affected by the dependent visa changes, given the high proportion of postgraduate students from these countries who had previously brought families with them.
Nepal, however, was the standout exception, with a 92% surge in student numbers, leapfrogging Hong Kong, Malaysia and the US to become the UK’s fifth-largest sending market in 2024/25. Nepal’s figures are a reminder that UK higher education retains strong pull factors in new and emerging markets even as it faces headwinds in more established ones.
EU enrolments fell by 15.6% overall. The majority of the decline reflects continuing students – a delayed consequence of post-Brexit changes to tuition fee status and funding eligibility rather than a current withdrawal of interest. Notably, new EU entrants fell by a comparatively modest 4.1%, and three of the top EU sending countries – Ireland, Germany, and Spain – actually saw growth in new entrant numbers from 2023/24 to 2024/25.
UCAS January 2026 entry figures promising
While HESA data describes where we have been, the UCAS January deadline figures offer the clearest early-cycle view of where international student demand is heading. It is important to note, however, that the UCAS data does not include postgraduate students or students applying through non-UCAS channels. Approximately 80% of undergraduate applicants have typically applied by this point in the cycle, making it a reliable barometer.
The headline number is encouraging – total international undergraduate applicants reached a record 124,830, up 5.1% year-on-year – nearly double the 2.7% growth recorded at the same point in 2025. That translates to around 6,000 additional prospective students compared to last January.
Top 20 countries of domicile for UCAS undergraduate applicants, January 2026
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | % change 25-26 | |
| China | 28,620 | 31,160 | 34,380 | 10.3% |
| India | 8,770 | 8,740 | 8,870 | 1.5% |
| United States of America | 5,980 | 6,680 | 6,920 | 3.6% |
| Ireland | 4,990 | 5,750 | 6,440 | 12.0% |
| Hong Kong | 5,130 | 4,820 | 4,770 | -1.0% |
| Singapore | 3,780 | 3,610 | 3,880 | 7.5% |
| Turkey | 2,600 | 3,210 | 3,560 | 10.9% |
| United Arab Emirates | 3,690 | 3,580 | 3,520 | -1.7% |
| Malaysia | 3,360 | 2,940 | 3,100 | 5.4% |
| France | 2,640 | 2,440 | 2,770 | 13.5% |
| Canada | 2,770 | 2,770 | 2,720 | -1.8% |
| Spain | 2,110 | 2,030 | 2,020 | -0.5% |
| Pakistan | 1,990 | 1,960 | 1,870 | -4.6% |
| Nigeria | 1,590 | 1,710 | 1,850 | 8.2% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1,880 | 2,200 | 1,760 | -20.0% |
| Germany | 1,440 | 1,410 | 1,400 | -0.7% |
| Korea, Republic of | 1,340 | 1,410 | 1,350 | -4.3% |
| Italy | 1,320 | 1,320 | 1,240 | -6.1% |
| Kuwait | 970 | 1,030 | 1,220 | 18.4% |
| Switzerland | 1,210 | 1,090 | 1,150 | 5.5% |
China drives volume growth while emerging markets accelerate
China remains the largest single-source country by a significant margin, with 34,380 applicants, a 10.3% increase, and the largest net addition of any country at +3,220. This figure is particularly notable given broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty and reflects continued appetite among Chinese students for UK undergraduate education. Beyond China, several markets are worth flagging for operators looking to understand the evolving tenant mix:
- Ireland (+12.0%) continues its strong run, building on 15% growth in 2025. Irish students qualify for home-rate fees and loan support, making them a distinct and financially stable cohort.
- Singapore (+7.5%) has reversed two years of declines, recovering from a -4.5% dip in 2025 to show renewed momentum.
- France (+13.5%) has swung sharply positive after a -7.6% drop in applications last year — the largest percentage drop of any major EU market.
- The USA (+3.6%) continues its upward trend, albeit more moderately than the 11.7% surge seen in 2025, which was partly attributed to policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, incentivising American students to look at UK options.
A note of caution: January visa data
A note of caution comes from the January 2026 sponsored study visa application data, published by the Home Office. Main applicant numbers fell to 19,800 in January 2026 – a 31% drop compared to the 28,700 recorded in January 2025, and the lowest January figure in four years.
| Year | Month | Number of Sponsored Study Visa Main Applicants |
| 2022 | January | 31,100 |
| 2023 | January | 26,900 |
| 2024 | January | 25,500 |
| 2025 | January | 28,700 |
| 2026 | January | 19,800 |
This is particularly notable because January 2025 had appeared to signal a stabilisation following the 2024 dip, making the 2026 reversal more significant than a simple year-on-year comparison might suggest. Visa applications are a leading indicator for enrolments, and while UCAS undergraduate applicant data remains encouraging, the gap between application intent and actual arrival will be one of the defining variables for accommodation operators planning occupancy for 2026/27.
There are a range of factors driving this decline: the shortening of the Graduate Route, pressure on institutions from Basic Compliance Assessments, slow visa processing times affecting timely arrivals from several key markets, and intensifying competition from other study destinations, including Canada, Australia, and, increasingly, continental Europe.
What This Means for Accommodation Operators
The three datasets tell a nuanced story. HESA confirms that 2024/25 enrolments absorbed a significant visa policy shock but held up better than worst-case forecasts implied. UCAS data shows the 2026 undergraduate pipeline at record levels, with genuine breadth across source markets. But Home Office monthly visa figures inject a note of real caution – a 31% January drop is significant, and the structural factors driving it have not gone away. The structural appeal of UK higher education to international students remains intact, and the undergraduate pipeline looks promising — but the path from application to enrolment to arrival is facing real friction. The fundamental supply-demand dynamics for PBSA remain in operators’ favour, but occupancy planning should be approached with appropriate caution.
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Data sources:
HESA 2024/25 Higher Education Enrolment Statistics
UCAS 2026 Cycle Applicant Figures (14 January deadline)
Home Office Monthly entry clearance visa applications: January 2026
